How AI Will Shape the Future of Jobs in Kurdistan Region: Opportunities and Challenges

By: Taha Yaqob

Imagine a world where machines can learn, reason, and act autonomously—a world where artificial intelligence (AI) unlocks new possibilities for economic growth and social development. However, along with these opportunities, there are potential risks and barriers that need to be addressed. This is the reality that the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI), a semi-autonomous region that has experienced rapid growth and development in recent years, is currently confronting. AI has the potential to reshape the future of jobs in the KRI, as well as discuss the steps the region needs to take in order to adequately prepare for this transformative technology.

The labor market in the KRI is currently characterized by certain dynamics. With a population of 5.2 million people, 60% of whom are under 25 years old, and 30% having completed postsecondary education, the region holds significant potential. However, there are some challenges that need to be addressed. The labor force participation rate stands at 40%, while the unemployment rate is at 15%. A majority of the employed workforce is concentrated in the public sector, comprising 70% of total employment and 90% of formal employment.

On the other hand, the private sector faces numerous obstacles, including limited access to finance, inadequate infrastructure, a shortage of skilled labor, and restricted market opportunities. This disparity has resulted in a mismatch between the skills required by employers and those possessed or attainable by workers. Employers highly value skills such as customer handling, communication, numeracy, proficiency in the English language, and practical technical experience. However, they often struggle to find adequately qualified workers who meet their expectations.

Despite these challenges, several sectors in the KRI show promise for future employment growth over the next 10 to 15 years. These sectors include construction, transport, storage, and communications, wholesale and retail trade, agriculture, manufacturing, education, health, and professional services.

The integration of AI in the KRI presents a range of potential benefits, including increased efficiency, productivity, cost reduction, and the emergence of new job opportunities. Furthermore, the adoption of AI has the potential to enhance the global value of goods and services by up to 7%. However, alongside these advantages, AI also brings forth certain challenges, including the displacement of jobs, income inequality, and job insecurity.

The impact of AI on different occupations varies depending on the nature of their tasks and the skills they require. According to a report by the Brookings Institution, workers who are better educated and earn higher wages are more susceptible to AI disruption. This is because they often engage in abstract, analytical, and creative tasks that can be effectively handled through machine learning. Conversely, lower-paid and lower-educated workers are relatively less exposed to AI, as their roles typically involve more manual, routine, and physically demanding tasks that are harder to automate. Nevertheless, it is important to note that even lower-skilled workers are not entirely immune to AI-related disruptions, as they may face increased competition from higher-skilled workers who have been displaced by AI and are seeking alternative employment.

While the KRI is still in the early stages of AI development, there are several ongoing initiatives that demonstrate the region's interest and potential for AI. For instance: TimeBox, a local company specializing in online education and training services, organized a webinar in the Kurdish language to raise awareness and interest among the Kurdish audience about AI and its practical applications. The KRI Ministry of Planning also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to develop KRG Vision 2030, a strategic plan for the region's economic and social development. The MoU includes cooperation on utilizing AI and other digital technologies to support the implementation of the vision. Moreover, researchers from Salahaddin University-Erbil, the oldest university in the KRI, published a research paper analyzing the role of AI in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The paper explores how AI can contribute to various SDGs such as poverty reduction, health improvement, education quality, and environmental protection.

These examples highlight the emerging interest and potential for AI development in the KRI. However, further efforts are required to create an enabling environment and ecosystem for AI innovation and adoption.

The KRI should adopt a proactive and comprehensive approach that addresses both the demand and supply sides of its labor market. On the demand side, there is a need to diversify the economy, reducing its dependence on oil, and fostering a vibrant private sector capable of generating ample employment opportunities for its population. On the supply side, it is crucial to develop the region's human capital by bridging the AI skills gap and ensuring that the workforce possesses the necessary skills and competencies to thrive in an increasingly digital world. By taking these measures, the KRI can effectively leverage the potential of AI to create a more prosperous and sustainable future for its people.